SELL STRATEGY

Selling Strategically Around Market Cycle Peaks

Our sell strategy is built for long-term investors who want to reduce risk and only take profits as markets approach their peak. Instead of guessing the exact top, we focus on providing four SELL signals, each recommending that you sell 25% of your portfolio. This helps you take profits as prices rise—without trying to time it perfectly.

The signals come from models we've built to study past market cycles, using both on-chain and off-chain data. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to peak first, with other assets following not long after. How you respond to those signals is up to you. You might decide to sell all your Bitcoin at the first sign of a top, spread your sales evenly across a few assets, or hold on to some for the long haul. There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. The idea is to shape a strategy that fits you—your goals, your risk comfort, and how you see the market. Use the signals as a guide, and tailor the strategy to your unique needs.

Ultimately, this strategy is a guideline — it’s a flexible approach you can shape around what works for you. Maybe you want to take profits earlier, adjust the amount you sell at each point, or hold on a bit longer. The key is having a plan that keeps you focused when the market becomes unpredictable.

Following a clear strategy helps you avoid getting caught up in short-term volatility. Instead of second-guessing every move, you’re making decisions based on data and a process you trust—giving you a better shot at staying on track through the ups and downs.

  • Before the real signals come, it’s worth practicing the process ahead of time. Take a small portion of your portfolio—say, 1%—and use it to run a full test. Actually go through the steps of selling: convert a bit of each asset into whatever you plan to move into, whether that’s fiat or stablecoins. And if you’re using stables, decide which ones you’re comfortable with.

    Think through the practical details now: Will you leave the funds on an exchange, move them to a Ledger, or store them elsewhere? How do taxes apply in your region? What kind of fees show up along the way?

    By actually running through the process with a small test, you’ll catch potential issues early and get familiar with each step. That way, when it’s time to make the real moves, you’ll feel more confident and in control.

  • When deciding where to allocate your profits after selling, you essentially have three main options: keeping funds in your own wallet, storing them on exchanges, or transferring them to a bank account.

    • Keeping funds in your own wallet 

    It is important to first understand the difference between hot and cold wallets. Where a hot wallet is stored online and a cold wallet is offline. Read here more about the differences. This option ensures you maintain custody of your funds, reducing reliance on third parties. 

    Funds in wallets are stored in stablecoins, which can provide stability if you plan to reinvest later. Stablecoins in a wallet can serve as a bridge between crypto and fiat, maintaining value while leaving room for future moves. Stablecoins here can help mitigate price volatility while you consider your next moves. If you would like to read more about stablecoins, we have created a detailed guide. 

    • Storing funds on exchanges

    Exchanges like Coinbase or Binance are convenient. However, they may not be the best choice, especially during bear markets.  Funds on exchanges, regardless of whether they are in fiat or stablecoins, are exposed to potential counterparty risks, so this option demands caution. Beware of these trade-offs and avoid leaving substantial amounts there unless actively trading. Make sure to be well informed when it comes to storage on exchanges. 

    • Transferring funds to bank account

    Transferring profits directly to your bank account will be in fiat. This removes any crypto market exposure which means there is less straight-forward reinvestment. Yet, this may be an ideal choice if you want to reduce exposure to market fluctuations.

    Whichever route you take, assess your risk appetite and benefits and downfalls of each option. Always keep your approach to what aligns best with your financial goals and make these decisions before you start selling